UNWTO WORLD TOURISM BAROMETER, JANUARY 2021
International tourism is expected to fall by more than 70% in 2020, returning to levels of 30 years ago
Following an unprecedented health, social and economic emergency brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, tourism faced its largest crisis on record in 2020.
International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) fell by 74% in 2020 compared to the previous year due to widespread travel restrictions and a sharp drop in demand.
The decline in international travel represents an estimated loss of $1.3 trillion in export revenues - more than 11 times the loss recorded during the 2009 global economic crisis. The crisis put 100 to 120 million direct tourism jobs at risk, most of them in small and medium-sized enterprises.
Asia and the Pacific saw an 84% decrease in international arrivals in 2020, approximately 300 million fewer than the previous year. The Middle East and Africa recorded a 75% decline in arrivals. Arrivals to Europe decreased by 70%, representing more than 500 million fewer international tourists, while the Americas saw a decline of 69%.
The latest UNWTO Panel of Experts survey shows a mixed outlook for 2021. Nearly half of respondents (45%) foresee better prospects for 2021 compared to last year, while 25% expect similar performance and 30% foresee a worsening of results.
The overall outlook for a recovery in 2021 appears to have worsened. 50% of respondents now expect a recovery only in 2022, compared to 21% in October 2020. The remaining half of respondents still see a potential recovery in 2021, although this is below the expectations shown in the October 2020 survey.
Experts foresee that demand for outdoor and nature-based tourism activities has increased and that interest in domestic tourism and 'slow travel' experiences will also grow.
Looking further ahead, most experts do not foresee a return to pre-pandemic levels before 2023. In fact, 43% of respondents point to 2023, while 41% expect a return to 2019 levels in 2024 or later.
UNWTO's extended scenarios for 2021-2024 indicate that it could take two and a half to four years for international tourism to return to 2019 levels.
The gradual rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine is expected to help restore consumer confidence, contribute to easing travel restrictions and slowly normalize travel over the coming year.